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Quant Systems Lab · Control Systems for Quantitative Finance

Numeraire and Forward Measures

Choosing a numeraire (bank account, bond, annuity) induces a measure under which that numeraire-valued price is a martingale.

Explanation

A numeraire is the asset you measure value in; dividing prices by the numeraire and choosing the matching measure yields martingales by construction.

The money-market numeraire gives the standard risk-neutral measure, under which discounted prices are fair games and pricing uses discounted expectations.

Using a T-maturity zero-coupon bond as numeraire gives the T-forward measure, under which the corresponding forward price is a martingale.

In interest-rate and XVA engines, switching numeraires and measures simplifies dynamics and expectations for specific products or cash-flow structures.


numeraireforward measurerisk-neutralmartingaleinterest rates
Interactive visualisation

Pick a numeraire. Divide by it. Under the matching measure, the resulting process is a martingale. Here we test that visually by plotting the cross-path mean of X_t = S_t / B_t (discounted price): it should stay near a flat level.

Time (0 → T)Numeraire-denominated X_tlevel ≈ 100.0000.000.200.400.600.801.00
Numbers
r=2.00%, q=0.00%, σ=25.00%
P(0,T)=exp(-rT) ≈ 0.9802
Flat reference level ≈ 100.0000
Mean at T ≈ 97.0254 (deviation -2.9746)
Blue line is the mean over 300 paths.
Interpretation

A numeraire is “what you measure value in”. When you divide by the chosen numeraire and use the matching pricing measure, the resulting process has zero drift in expectation.

Money-market numeraire gives the usual “discounted price” story. Bond numeraire gives the “forward measure” story: quantities naturally expressed in units of P(t,T) become martingales.

This toy model uses deterministic rates and a simple GBM. The goal is the invariance idea: change numeraire → change what is driftless, not “learn measure theory from sliders”.